Sometimes the biggest maize yield driver isn’t the fertiliser

Soil pH accounted for roughly 42% of variable importance in a Rwanda maize yield analysis — ahead of urea treatment (28%) and district (18%).
Agricultural Analytics
Statistics
Soil Science
Case Study
Author

Victor Mandela

Published

7 September 2026

Keywords

agricultural analytics, R Shiny dashboard, maize yield, Rwanda, statistics, soil science

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Portfolio Edition ••• Monitoring & Evaluation · Impact Evaluation · R Shiny Decision Support ••• Nairobi, KenyaUPDATED NOV 2026

In an analysis of maize yield across Rwanda, I looked at several potential yield drivers: soil pH, urea treatment, district, soil nitrogen and other trial characteristics.

Sometimes the biggest maize yield driver isn't the fertiliser — infographic

One result stood out

Driver Share of variable importance
Soil pH ~42%
Urea treatment 28%
District 18%

The analysis also identified an optimal soil pH range of about 5.5–6.5 — and acidic soils were associated with yield reductions of around 1.2–1.8 t/ha.

Why it matters in the field

On strongly acidic soils, fine-tuning the urea schedule means optimising the second lever while the biggest one is left alone.

Good agricultural data science connects the intervention to the environment that intervention operates in.

▶ Try it yourself — live R Shiny demo. Open the Rwanda Maize Yield Analyzer · Username: test · Password: test